Fine Jewellery's Value Reckoning

I used to rummage through my mother's jewellery drawer as a child. Lots of rose gold—the standard in Eastern Europe; London blue topazes (my personal favourite); and chandelier earrings so big they grazed my shoulder when I was far too small for them. Every night was a game of costume; the character I chose was always someone glamorous and someone just out of reach.It turns out the game is ancient. The rummaging, the trying-on, the wanting—these aren't unique behaviours but something closer to instinct. The earliest known jewellery predates written language by tens of thousands of years: shells strung on cord, found at sites across Africa and the Middle East, dated to over 100,000 years ago. They were almost certainly traded, making jewellery one of the first objects of exchange, proof that adornment and commerce have been entangled since before we had words for either.Fast forward centuries and the particulars of your mother's collection will have evolved with fashion; its materials and technologies. But the impulse behind owning these objects—status, belonging, the performance of self—hasn't budged. It has been constant, in the face of world wars, industrial revolution, fast fashion even. However, what the industry faces today is unlike any in its history. A Tectonic ShiftIt would be amiss to talk about the state of jewellery today and not address the industry’s white elephant: the rise of lab-grown diamonds (LGDs). Lab-grown diamonds are by no means a new innovation. The technology dates back to 1954, first developed by General Electric for industrial use, and not, as one might expect, to end up on anyone's finger. What is new, however, is the convergence of widespread adoption, technological progress, and cultural permission that has thrust them into the mainstream.The inflection point was arguably 2018, when the GIA stopped calling lab-grown stones "synthetic". This refusal to classify one as more 'real' than the other was quickly followed by granting them the same 4Cs certification applied to natural stones—a seismic legitimisation. It shows the importance of language and that certified gemstones are only as valuable as the certificate paired with them. By late 2025, however, the GIA had retired the 4Cs certification for LGDs entirely, replacing it with a simple two-tier system: "premium" or "standard". The reason? Over 95% of LGDs already fall into the top range of colour and clarity, making traditional grading distinctions essentially pointless.And yet, the debate rages on, rather loudly and increasingly online. Just watch the Insta-wars between brides comparing their lab-grown stones to IVF babies to understand how charged this territory has become. As is often the case, the arguments online can sometimes lack nuance: yes, lab-grown means we aren't mining diamonds, which brings with it a whole set of ethical questions. But the lab materials still need to come from somewhere. It’s no different to our iPhones and the cobalt needed for them to function. Just like the data centres that propel today’s ever-increasing usage of AI, pro-lab-grown entities tend to leave out the details surrounding the kilowatt-hours it takes to make one-carat in a lab.Perhaps an interesting development on the horizon to counter this energy argument is solar LGDs: the idea of transforming solar energy to power stone creation is starting to carry a romantic notion. But for me personally, it's not quite enough to beat the story of a stone formed over a billion years of pressure. Then again, I'm a sucker for a good origin story.Despite all of this, lab-grown adoption shows no sign of slowing. Estimates suggest up to 30% of all engagement rings will feature LGDs by 2030. Not bad for a General Electric invention. Marie Antoinette Girl MathsNow, I'll address what a lot of you may be thinking: how large is 30% of all engagement rings, really? How many diamonds are there in circulation right now, still sitting in De Beers' reserves or left in the earth's crust?Intentionally, there has been a lot of mystery around the exact supply and demand forces at play to keep diamond prices so artificially compressed. What the flood of lab diamonds has done is expose that illusion of scarcity, pulling it into sharp focus for consumers.So what does lab-grown actually mean for the industry? With positional goods like jewellery, it's all relative, so bear with me for some very amateur napkin maths to illustrate the point.Take the most famous diamond necklace in history: the Collier de la Reine. It lay at the centre of the Affair of the Diamond Necklace, the scandal that cost Marie Antoinette her reputation and, arguably, her head. More of a vest than a necklace, it comprised 647 diamonds and 2,800 carats. Valued at 1.6 million livres in 1785—a sum so incomprehensible at the time that no single buyer, including the sum of multiple royal fortunes, could afford it—it was eventually broken up and sold for parts.Replicate those stones today at lab-grown market prices, and you are looking at just under USD 1 million* bar the craft and metalwork needed to construct it. A high sum, but a far cry from the fortune it once represented. It gives us a picture of what this invention has done: turning seemingly priceless pieces into something any tech mogul or A-list celebrity could acquire today.Even natural diamonds, long held as the benchmark of compressed material value, have dropped 26% in price over the last two years alone due to the saturation of lab stones in the market. So much for "diamonds are forever", it seems.What this quick maths tells us is that the value question is not carat weight multiplied by market rate. It never was. It is how many people want something, how many cannot have it, and how visible that difference is.*Based on rudimentary per-carat calculations at current lab-grown market prices. The Race to the BottomPerhaps lab-grown's rapid rise may prove to be its own undoing.By focusing too hard on the carat-size-per-penny narrative, the industry risks wiping out its own value. We are already seeing the reversal in consumer behaviour: people opting for smaller stones precisely to signal less 'lab-made'. The very thing lab-grown sold itself on—"bigger for less"—is becoming a mark against it.A further trend that may end up cannibalising LGDs entirely is the rise of influencers explaining how to order loose lab diamonds directly from manufacturers, even walking followers through DIY designs without any expert jeweller's knowledge on how to properly encase a stone. Cutting out the middle man sounds good for the consumer. But it leaves them with nowhere to place their trust and with a stone that literally drops out of its setting. The stone in question is more likely to be a cubic zirconia without the trained eye of a gemologist to verify. Funnily enough, the way prices are going, lab-grown may find itself pushed alongside simulants in the consumer's mind–despite being atomically identical to a natural diamond. We see the price floor collapsing in on itself, with LGDs being offered for free, based on the purchase of weight in gold, at trade shows. With this plummet in commodity price per carat, the question is whether it takes natural diamonds down with it. Speaking of commodities, a telling move on the state of the industry is Pandora's recent switch from sterling silver to platinum-plated. It may sound like an upgrade; platinum is, after all, one of the most expensive metals in the world. But the move is purely commercial, a hedge against silver's mass volatility, something increasingly common during the persistent global uncertainties we’re living through today. Plated platinum over brass is, materially, less valuable to the wearer than the sterling silver it replaced. The consumer is, once again, left shortchanged. The industry keeps pulling the same trick for quick bucks. All this teaches us a lesson: you cannot commoditise something that never stood on material value in the first place. And yet that is exactly what is happening. New Markers of ValueThe risks of lab penetration in the market were not lost on De Beers. In 2024 they unveiled their "Origins" strategy, following it the next year with their highest marketing spend on natural diamonds in a decade, built around a single argument: provenance. Where a stone comes from. The journey it took. The community it supported. Everything a lab, by definition, cannot offer.This year, they leaned in further. 2026 saw De Beers launch their most powerful visual distinguisher yet: the rough stone (which in lab form looks more like a USB stick). De Beers has been placing rough natural stones alongside polished ones in one design, on a bracelet or ring, letting the contrast do the talking. If one is formed by nature over billions of years of pressure, surely the other polished one is too. It is a framing bias deployed with precision. It's clever—but it is also, in part, a confession: when you can no longer compete on the stone alone, you compete on the narrative behind it.The overall look this collection evokes is reminiscent of Mughal jewellery—engravings on rough stones and emeralds that look more like pebbles. Less about the sparkle, more about the craft and story embedded in the form. The Mughals drew pictures and engravings directly onto stone surfaces, and we are seeing that same language return now.Now, if we had to place bets on what specifically, material-wise, rises next: we are already seeing renewed interest in coloured gemstones: the classic rubies, emeralds, and sapphires. But perhaps like diamonds, the technology will catch up to replicate these too, we already see lab houses attempting antique cuts and fancy colour diamonds, and it will just depend on whether the consumer demand is there to warrant investment in technology replicating the jardin of emeralds or the inner luminescence of rubies.The trend towards more coloured stones also speaks to fashion's cyclical nature, reaching full saturation before repeating itself. Look at Dior's latest collection, which looks incredibly similar to Cartier's Tutti Frutti designs of the 1920s and '30s—a micro example of history repeating itself. Or perhaps we’ll turn to the only precious gemstone that isn't a crystal but organic: the pearl. Conch pearls in particular are already seeing renewed attention for their standout luminous pink. Which takes us back, with some irony, to the very beginning. 100,000 years ago, seashells strung together.The meaning and human craft behind these pieces is the new scarcity. From independent designers to the highest of haute couture jewellery houses, people are citing the thousands of hours required to make a single piece over the carat size. Skilled human labour is made visible precisely because it cannot be replicated. Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi recently wore matching signet rings throughout the Wuthering Heights press tour, made by London jeweller Cece Fein-Hughes. No huge stones, just a particularly fiddly hand-painted inlay and the weight of what the object meant. Symbolism as the whole point, not an afterthought. Priceless Is a Belief SystemMaybe that is what it all whittles down to. Meaning, born through sacrifice. The story of the most priceless jewel in history makes that case better than any market report. In the valley of Manta, in what is now Ecuador, the local people worshipped a single enormous emerald—described as almost the size of an ostrich egg, carved in the form of a parrot—as a living goddess. They brought smaller emeralds to her temple as offerings, believing them to be her daughters returning home. When the Spanish conquistadors arrived, the mother stone had already vanished and, despite years of Inquisition-era torture, no one ever gave up her location. Belief alone turned a stone into a treasure that was truly priceless, and whose location was never given up.Hundreds of years and billions in marketing later, nothing has really changed.Maybe in the end, we’re all playing the same game of dress-up as I did in my mother's wardrobe—chasing something meaningful, scarce and unique that lets us show the world who we are, or who we want to be. As the diamond and wider jewellery category evolves, value will favour brands that can clearly express what they stand for—and carry that through, consistently, over time.If you’re thinking through similar questions, we’re always open to a conversation. Speak to one of our consultants via hello@matterofform.com. History repeats itself. Value changes costume. Matter Of Form’s Senior Strategist and resident gem expert Anna Fostiak takes on lab-grown diamonds, positional games, and what jewellery is actually selling.

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